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How to grow 376% per year? Case study of Polish PV marketDODANO: 21 April 2017 AUTOR: Jakub
More than 4 years was needed for Renewable Energy Act to be implemented in Poland. Two different governments were working on that legislation up until May 2016 when it was finally signed by the President. What does it mean for RES in Poland?
- Firstly, volatile Green Certificates (GC) were replaced by stable auctioning system (more in Article 2 at April 24th 2017),
- Secondly, growth in micro installations has been increased (more about micro installations in Article 4),
- Thirdly, we are coming closer to the EU RES goals for Poland, therefore avoiding billions of EUR in penalties imposed on Poland.
Through various reasons Polish government chose PV as a preferred RES, therefore deciding to increase its overall capacity in Poland.
That’s why we saw 376 % increase in PV capacity in last year.
In this brief article I would like to show you exactly why is that the case
Reason no 1 - Stabilizing the grid
In August 2015 there was a serious drought through Poland. Combine it with poorly scheduled maintenance in conventional power plants and you found yourself in the brink of a blackout.
- PSE (Transmission System Operator in PL) decided to impose substantial limitations on electricity supply.
- Such a limit negatively influenced polish GDP.
To avoid such situations in future, Government decided to schedule 2000 MW in PV in upcoming auctions (for details go to Article 2 at April 24th 2017)
Reason no 2 - EU RES goals
Poland is obliged to reach 15% RES share in gross energy consumption.
There are three components in this equation: heating sector, transport and electrical energy. For each of this sector, specific corresponding targets were imposed:
Where we are currently with RES targets?
As you can see, still we need 6,7% additional RES in electricity mix to avoid billions of EUR in penalties.
Reason no 3 - RES act & auctioning system
Pros of auctioning system are:
- Lack of fluctuations in the amount of subsidy received / MWh
- Fixed subsidy received via FiT through 15 years CfD, which gives us easier financing and increased stability
- System is in line with EU regulations and requirements
- Higher entry level for projects (additional 30k PLN required)
- Risk of underbidding in wind bracket (unstable sources above 1MW). It is worth notice that we didn't saw underbidding in PV bracket (unstable sources below 1MW - details in Article 2 at April 24th 2017)
Reason no 4 - Lowering CAPEX via subsidies
Approximately 5.5 Billion EUR will be available for RES in Poland until 2020.
- Up to 85% of non refundable subsidies
- ~2.5 y ROI (own consumption, e.g Business clients)
- Up to 2 rounds of financing per each voivodeship / annually
376% growth (in last year) seems hard to grasp. You could argue that back in 2013 we started from 1.9 MW installed capacity in PV, therefore the percentage of growth will slow down. Nevertheless taking into account only large scale installations, and government goals for 2000MW in commercial PV, we can predict further 1052% growth between 2016 (190 MW) and 2020 (2000 MW).
Did the PV train left the station already?